September 2026: 66% of wallets lost money on 15-minute BTC/ETH markets
Market-wide data from all traders on Polymarket's 15-minute BTC/ETH markets. Not CandleOdds results.
Every wallet that traded Polymarket's 15-minute Bitcoin and Ethereum Up/Down markets that month: 5,760 markets, 16,144 wallets, $122.6M put in.
Lost money vs made money
The other 0.4% broke even.
Results are after fees. The median is the wallet in the middle: half did better, half did worse.
Late buys by the 50 largest wallets
The 50 wallets that put in the most money, and what they bought in the last 5 minutes of a 15-minute market.
The win rate counts positions; the result per $1 is weighted by the money spent, so the two don't convert into each other directly.
Biggest losing wallets on Polymarket
Other traders' public Polymarket wallets. These are not CandleOdds, its bots or its members.
| # | Wallet | Net loss | Share of all losses | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x664a…fc5f | −$503,627 | 16.7% | 89,929 |
| 2 | 0x433f…a0dc | −$273,522 | 9.1% | 18,436 |
| 3 | 0x10d5…5388 | −$143,806 | 4.8% | 23,689 |
| 4 | 0x5e60…e468 | −$84,709 | 2.8% | 70,325 |
| 5 | 0x90e3…34ad | −$60,152 | 2.0% | 15,294 |
| 6 | 0xf6dd…ac58 | −$51,670 | 1.7% | 1,734 |
| 7 | 0xe907…cff6 | −$46,806 | 1.6% | 3,831 |
| 8 | 0x01e8…e002 | −$37,652 | 1.3% | 7,158 |
| 9 | 0x8ec4…54f2 | −$36,422 | 1.2% | 3,216 |
| 10 | 0x0cb0…3a90 | −$30,783 | 1.0% | 160,604 |
The 20 wallets with the biggest net loss on these markets that month, out of all 16,144 that traded them. The share is that wallet's part of everything the losing wallets lost. Each address opens that wallet's public Polymarket profile.
Copying the big wallets' large buys
Both figures are the result per $1 spent on those buys.
Trades vs net result
One dot per wallet: further right is more trades, above the line is a profit. Correlation between the two: −0.06 (0 means no link, ±1 a perfect one).
| Trades | Wallets | In profit | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000-9,999 | 17 | 6 | −$3,947 |
| 10,000-49,999 | 12 | 5 | −$356,159 |
| 50,000+ | 21 | 10 | −$653,983 |
How these numbers are made
- These figures cover every wallet trading these markets on Polymarket. They are not CandleOdds' own results; CandleOdds' signal record is on the Track record page.
- Source: Polymarket's public data.
- Only the 15-minute Bitcoin and Ethereum Up/Down markets are counted. A wallet's trades in any other market are left out.
- Results are after fees.
- The period is September 2026 in US Eastern time; this report was generated on October 7, 2026.
- Weekly and monthly figures aren't directly comparable: shorter periods look milder.
- "Top 50 by dollars in" can include wallets that mint and merge pairs of tokens rather than trade.
Built on Polymarket's Builder Program. Independent, not run or endorsed by Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice.
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