How CandleOdds works
The short version, in plain language.
A trading bot built on Polymarket
CandleOdds Auto, a trading bot for Polymarket's 15-minute Bitcoin & Ethereum markets. It places the high-conviction trades for you, from your own wallet, within limits you set. You can also see each signal and take it yourself with one tap.
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Built on Polymarket's Builder Program. Independent, not run or endorsed by Polymarket.
Every trade happens on Polymarket itself and settles on the Polygon blockchain, so you can check any of them yourself: each fill and settled trade in Positions has a link to its real transaction on Polygonscan, and each signal and position links to the same market on polymarket.com.
Where they come from
Our own model predicts which way each 15-minute window is more likely to close. Only its strongest calls become a high-conviction signal. Most windows have none, by design.
Illustration: each box is one 15-minute window. Only a few become signals.
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A signal is high-conviction only when all of these hold at the start of the window:
- the model is at least 5 points away from a coin flip (real conviction). The signal card shows this number as Confidence: how far the model's estimated chance of being right is above 50/50. It is an estimate, not a guarantee;
- the market price for the model's side is between 50¢ and 60¢;
- the model and the market are within 6¢ of each other.
Prices move after a signal is found. If the live price rises above 60¢ the card says “Price moved — no trade” and you can't take it. If it drops below 50¢ you get a cheaper entry and a bigger payout if the signal wins, but that's outside the range the signal was found in, so the card asks you to choose “Take anyway”.
Non-custodial: your funds stay yours
Your money sits in your own Polymarket trading wallet, not with us. The bot can only place trades within your limits. CandleOdds can never withdraw or move your money.
- No “connect wallet”Never link MetaMask, Phantom or any wallet you own.
- No approvalsYour personal wallet is never asked to sign anything.
- Your keys, not oursSecured by Privy (a Stripe company), never stored by CandleOdds.
Not CandleOdds. Your wallet's keys are secured by Privy, a Stripe company. You can export your key at any time.
You can protect withdrawals with two-factor (fingerprint, Face ID or an authenticator app) in Wallet → Security.
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When you sign in with your email, a trading wallet is created for you. Trades you place are signed by your wallet in your browser, and CandleOdds' servers never hold your key or your funds.
If you turn on CandleOdds Auto, you give CandleOdds a limited permission to place buy orders for you, within the limits you set. It can't be used to withdraw or move money, and you can turn it off at any time.
You can see your wallet and its activity on Polygonscan and Polymarket from the Wallet screen.
How the signals have done
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It measures the signals, before fees, not any person's trades.
See the full track record →Learn more →
This counts every high-conviction signal on Bitcoin and Ethereum windows that has since resolved. “Right” means the side the model picked won. Your own results depend on the price you got, whether your order filled, and the fees.
What it costs
Each order shows its fees before you confirm. Your profit and loss in the app is after fees.
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Most of the fee goes to Polymarket; CandleOdds adds a small builder fee.
Every order pays the 0.5% CandleOdds builder fee. Buying now pays Polymarket's taker fee, about 3% of your stake at these prices, plus the 0.5% CandleOdds builder fee. An order that waits for a better price pays no Polymarket fee, and pays the 0.5% CandleOdds builder fee on what fills.
When you buy now, the fees come out of your stake: the stake is the most you pay.
The confirm step shows the total and the split. A trade's detail in Positions shows what was actually paid.
You can still reach your funds
Your money is never held by CandleOdds. It sits in your wallet on the Polygon blockchain, so if this site were ever down, it would still be there. You can check your wallet's balance and history on Polygonscan from the Wallet screen.
The Wallet screen has an Export private key option. It opens a secure Privy window that shows you the key for your wallet's owner address; the key never passes through CandleOdds. That key owns your Polymarket wallet: the wallet's address is derived from it, and only a transaction it signs can move the funds.
To use it, import the key into a wallet app such as MetaMask (the export window explains how), then use that wallet with Polymarket's own tools.
One honest caveat: Polymarket doesn't currently publish a simple, one-click recovery for this type of wallet, so the steps can be technical and you may want help from someone experienced. If you want to be sure it works for you, try it with a small amount first. Keep the key private: anyone who has it can take your funds.
Polymarket's documentation on these walletsTrading involves risk
You can lose some or all of the money you put into a trade. Past results don't guarantee future ones, and no signal is a promise. Only trade money you can afford to lose. Nothing here is financial advice.
Where is CandleOdds available?
CandleOdds follows Polymarket's regional rules. Trading is unavailable in restricted regions (for example the US, the UK, France, Germany and others), but the site, the signals and the data can be viewed from anywhere.
In a restricted region you can't create a wallet, deposit, place trades or turn on CandleOdds Auto. If you already have money in CandleOdds, you can still withdraw it.
Polymarket's official list of restricted regions