Week of Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026: 61% of wallets lost money on 15-minute BTC/ETH markets

Market-wide data from all traders on Polymarket's 15-minute BTC/ETH markets. Not CandleOdds results.

Every wallet that traded Polymarket's 15-minute Bitcoin and Ethereum Up/Down markets that week: 1,344 markets, 6,970 wallets, $32.3M put in.

The headline

Lost money vs made money

Lost money 61.3%Made money 38.4%

The other 0.3% broke even.

Wallets that lost money

61.3%

Wallets

6,970

Median result per wallet

−$1.07

Total net result, all wallets

−$298,229

Winners' total

+$826,376

all wallets that made money

Losers' total

−$1,124,604

all wallets that lost money

Losses from the 10 worst wallets

42%

share of all losses

Losses from the 100 worst wallets

76%

share of all losses

Results are after fees. The median is the wallet in the middle: half did better, half did worse.

The big wallets

Late buys by the 50 largest wallets

The 50 wallets that put in the most money, and what they bought in the last 5 minutes of a 15-minute market.

Share of those positions that won60.3%

Average price paid (a winning share pays 100¢)70.1¢

Result per $1 spent

50 largest wallets, last 5 minutes−11.2¢ per $1

Everyone else, last 5 minutes+3.9¢ per $1

Everyone else, first 5 minutes−1.5¢ per $1

The win rate counts positions; the result per $1 is weighted by the money spent, so the two don't convert into each other directly.

Wallets

Biggest losing wallets on Polymarket

Other traders' public Polymarket wallets. These are not CandleOdds, its bots or its members.

#	Wallet	Net loss	Share of all losses	Trades
1	0x664a…fc5f	−$116,526	10.4%	21,920
2	0xd1ed…d7cb	−$68,564	6.1%	14,760
3	0x10d5…5388	−$51,259	4.6%	4,892
4	0x433f…a0dc	−$45,924	4.1%	2,512
5	0x90e3…34ad	−$44,479	4.0%	13,209
6	0x01e8…e002	−$41,080	3.6%	12,409
7	0x5e60…e468	−$32,916	2.9%	33,138
8	0x85fc…8700	−$25,945	2.3%	322
9	0xb55f…64d4	−$22,085	2.0%	22,255
10	0x672c…881b	−$19,597	1.7%	1,577
11	0xc746…4992	−$15,980	1.4%	2,352
12	0x5380…d4b3	−$14,192	1.3%	1,659
13	0xa665…01e3	−$13,654	1.2%	3,051
14	0xa855…3a4e	−$12,023	1.1%	383
15	0x8ec4…54f2	−$10,808	1.0%	126
16	0x1476…ec90	−$10,464	0.9%	108
17	0x7756…e674	−$10,146	0.9%	3
18	0xbd0d…1fb4	−$9,672	0.9%	446
19	0xc882…0662	−$9,627	0.9%	484
20	0xba18…b6f8	−$8,289	0.7%	202

Show all 20

The 20 wallets with the biggest net loss on these markets that week, out of all 6,970 that traded them. The share is that wallet's part of everything the losing wallets lost. Each address opens that wallet's public Polymarket profile.

Methodology

How these numbers are made

These figures cover every wallet trading these markets on Polymarket. They are not CandleOdds' own results; CandleOdds' signal record is on the Track record page.
Source: Polymarket's public data.
Only the 15-minute Bitcoin and Ethereum Up/Down markets are counted. A wallet's trades in any other market are left out.
Results are after fees.
The period is Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026 in US Eastern time; this report was generated on October 7, 2026.
Weekly and monthly figures aren't directly comparable: shorter periods look milder.
"Top 50 by dollars in" can include wallets that mint and merge pairs of tokens rather than trade.
The copy-trading and top-50 sections are in the monthly reports only: one week is too small a sample for them.

Built on Polymarket's Builder Program. Independent, not run or endorsed by Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice.

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