Week of Oct 5 – Oct 11, 2026: 61% of wallets lost money on 15-minute BTC/ETH markets

Market-wide data from all traders on Polymarket's 15-minute BTC/ETH markets. Not CandleOdds results.

Every wallet that traded Polymarket's 15-minute Bitcoin and Ethereum Up/Down markets that week: 1,344 markets, 7,372 wallets, $38.6M put in.

The headline

Lost money vs made money

Lost money 61.0%Made money 38.8%

The other 0.2% broke even.

Wallets that lost money

61.0%

Wallets

7,372

Median result per wallet

−$1.05

Total net result, all wallets

−$356,486

Winners' total

+$977,213

all wallets that made money

Losers' total

−$1,333,699

all wallets that lost money

Losses from the 10 worst wallets

56%

share of all losses

Losses from the 100 worst wallets

77%

share of all losses

Results are after fees. The median is the wallet in the middle: half did better, half did worse.

The big wallets

Late buys by the 50 largest wallets

The 50 wallets that put in the most money, and what they bought in the last 5 minutes of a 15-minute market.

Share of those positions that won56.7%

Average price paid (a winning share pays 100¢)68.6¢

Result per $1 spent

50 largest wallets, last 5 minutes−13.2¢ per $1

Everyone else, last 5 minutes+7.0¢ per $1

Everyone else, first 5 minutes−0.9¢ per $1

The win rate counts positions; the result per $1 is weighted by the money spent, so the two don't convert into each other directly.

Wallets

Biggest losing wallets on Polymarket

Other traders' public Polymarket wallets. These are not CandleOdds, its bots or its members.

#	Wallet	Net loss	Share of all losses	Trades
1	0x664a…fc5f	−$224,304	16.8%	46,216
2	0x01e8…e002	−$188,831	14.2%	21,384
3	0x90e3…34ad	−$147,042	11.0%	19,800
4	0xd1ed…d7cb	−$50,784	3.8%	23,092
5	0x433f…a0dc	−$40,488	3.0%	4,244
6	0x08cb…d5aa	−$22,759	1.7%	4,128
7	0x6c15…7d2d	−$19,649	1.5%	6,289
8	0x672c…881b	−$17,862	1.3%	1,924
9	0x5e60…e468	−$16,583	1.2%	19,662
10	0x7cd1…8d05	−$15,851	1.2%	4,108
11	0x10d5…5388	−$14,856	1.1%	5,438
12	0x92d9…4ea2	−$12,849	1.0%	326
13	0xb55f…64d4	−$10,163	0.8%	17,566
14	0x5b63…11a4	−$9,269	0.7%	3,764
15	0x344f…9dec	−$7,331	0.6%	8,461
16	0xe309…1433	−$6,950	0.5%	14,547
17	0x5380…d4b3	−$6,816	0.5%	2,664
18	0x9184…9f9f	−$5,579	0.4%	11,826
19	0x8408…2af4	−$5,374	0.4%	3,715
20	0xb040…dbea	−$5,333	0.4%	186

Show all 20

The 20 wallets with the biggest net loss on these markets that week, out of all 7,372 that traded them. The share is that wallet's part of everything the losing wallets lost. Each address opens that wallet's public Polymarket profile.

Methodology

How these numbers are made

These figures cover every wallet trading these markets on Polymarket. They are not CandleOdds' own results; CandleOdds' signal record is on the Track record page.
Source: Polymarket's public data.
Only the 15-minute Bitcoin and Ethereum Up/Down markets are counted. A wallet's trades in any other market are left out.
Results are after fees.
The period is Oct 5 – Oct 11, 2026 in US Eastern time; this report was generated on October 12, 2026.
Weekly and monthly figures aren't directly comparable: shorter periods look milder.
"Top 50 by dollars in" can include wallets that mint and merge pairs of tokens rather than trade.
The copy-trading and top-50 sections are in the monthly reports only: one week is too small a sample for them.

Built on Polymarket's Builder Program. Independent, not run or endorsed by Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice.

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